Ashton Jeanty to Patriots at No. 4? Why the Boise State Star Is a Smart Longshot Bet in the 2025 NFL Draft

The 2025 NFL Draft is shaping up to be full of surprises, and one of the smartest longshot bets on the board might just be Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty to go No. 4 overall to the New England Patriots.

At +3500 to be selected fourth overall and +3000 to be drafted by the Patriots at BetMGM, Jeanty sits firmly in longshot territory — but that doesn’t mean he should be overlooked. In fact, given New England’s new direction under the restructured front office and coaching staff, Jeanty could be exactly the type of offensive weapon they’re looking for.

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Mike Vrabel’s History with Dominant Running Backs

It’s no secret that new Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel leaned heavily on a bruising, game-changing back during his time as head coach of the Tennessee Titans. That back was Derrick Henry, and the formula worked: lean on the ground game to control the tempo, protect the quarterback, and open up the play-action passing game.

Jeanty, widely considered the best running back in the 2025 class, fits that mold perfectly — with even more versatility. Veterans Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson are both under contract for next season, but leave a lot to be desired at this point in their respective careers.

Jeanty’s Dominant 2024 Season

Jeanty’s rushing numbers in 2024 were eye-popping:

• 2,601 rushing yards
• 7.0 yards per carry
• 29 rushing touchdowns

He led the entire FBS in rushing yards and yards from scrimmage, showcasing his ability to not only dominate on the ground but also impact the game through the air. That versatility earned him the Maxwell Award, the Doak Walker Award, and a runner-up finish in Heisman Trophy voting.

His skill set makes him a scheme-proof, multi-dimensional playmaker who can thrive behind even an average offensive line — something the Patriots are still working to solidify.

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Why New England Could Pull the Trigger

While the Patriots still need to address their offensive line, they made solid moves in free agency that allow them flexibility early in the draft. They added a stabilizing tackle, as well as veteran depth pieces in WR Mack Hollins, TE Austin Hooper, and QB Josh Dobbs, giving them a functional offensive baseline.

Most importantly, they already landed their quarterback of the future in Drake Maye. Now, they need to surround him with explosive talent.

Jeanty would give the Patriots a foundational weapon to support Maye from day one. His presence would command defensive attention, open up passing lanes, and help New England re-establish a strong offensive identity.

Draft Board Shakeup Makes No. 4 a Real Possibility

According to DraftKings, Jeanty is the -130 favorite to go No. 6 overall to the Raiders, but the Patriots might not let him fall that far.

In this scenario:

1. QB Cam Ward goes No. 1 to the Titans
2. WR/CB Travis Hunter goes No. 2 to the Browns
3. DE Abdul Carter goes No. 3 to the Giants

That leaves New England sitting at No. 4 with the chance to grab the next best player on their board. If that player is Jeanty, it wouldn’t be a reach — it would be a game-changer for their offense.

The Bottom Line

Running backs aren’t usually drafted this high anymore, which is why Jeanty’s odds are as long as they are. But every rule has an exception, and Jeanty — with his elite production, explosiveness, and versatility — might just be it.

If you’re looking for a high-upside longshot bet in this year’s draft, Ashton Jeanty to the Patriots at No. 4 is well worth your attention.