Why Oklahoma QB John Mateer Is a Smart Sleeper Bet to Win the 2025 Heisman Trophy

The Oklahoma Sooners haven’t reached the College Football Playoff since 2019, a surprising drought for a program that previously made four of the first five CFP fields. But with the playoff expanding to 12 teams in 2025, Oklahoma is in prime position to reassert itself on the national stage—and they’ll likely do it behind one of the most exciting under-the-radar players in college football: quarterback John Mateer.

Mateer, who transferred to Norman after a breakout year at Washington State, enters the 2025 season with +3500 odds to win the Heisman Trophy at DraftKings. That’s the definition of sleeper value.

Following Arbuckle to Norman

Mateer followed offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle from Washington State to Oklahoma this offseason. The two built serious chemistry in 2024, as Mateer finished the season as the FBS leader in total touchdowns. Under Arbuckle’s aggressive Air Raid-influenced scheme, he thrived both through the air and on the ground.

In 13 games, Mateer completed 64.6% of his passes for 3,139 yards and 29 touchdowns, while adding 178 rushes for 15 touchdowns on the ground. Despite Washington State’s late-season collapse—losing four straight to finish 8-5—Mateer showcased his dual-threat upside and playmaking consistency all year.

Why Mateer Is a Legit Heisman Candidate

The path to the Heisman is often paved with stats, highlight-reel plays, and team success. Mateer checks all the boxes:

• Elite production: 44 total touchdowns last year—more than many Heisman finalists.
  
• Familiar system: He already knows Arbuckle’s scheme inside and out.
  
• Upgraded supporting cast: Oklahoma boasts one of the SEC’s rebuilt offensive lines and a talented group of receivers and backs with a new aggressive downfield approach.
  
• More national exposure: Playing at OU means more primetime games and CFP contention—crucial for Heisman narratives. Battles against Michigan, Auburn, Texas, South Carolina, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Alabama, Missouri and LSU are on the schedule.
  

If the Sooners crack the top 10 and push for a playoff spot, Mateer will be the centerpiece. That’s why his current +3500 price tag looks like a steal, with a 2.78% implied probability.

Dan Karpuc

Dan Karpuc is the Founder of Sleeper Central and a seasoned sports betting expert. Previously, he served as the Director of Digital Content at BetQL (acquired by Audacy) and has contributed to top sports media outlets, including GiveMeSport, 12Up, TradeSports, HuffPost, Bleacher Report, and ESPN. With millions of words published across the industry, Dan is a leading voice in sports betting analysis and strategy. His passion for longshot player prop bets fueled the creation of Sleeper Central, where he continues to provide sharp insights and innovative betting content.