MLB Sleeper Picks & Longshots
With 162 games per team, MLB betting and DFS offer endless opportunities to exploit undervalued plays. We focus on low-owned DFS hitters with favorable splits, overlooked home run props, and strikeout props on underrated pitchers. Whether it’s a platoon bat in a great matchup or a reliever stepping into a starting role, we find the edges that casual bettors miss.
On the betting side, we target longshot player props like stolen base bets, RBI props, and first-inning home runs. In the futures market, we highlight dark horse Cy Young and MVP candidates, breakout rookies, and team win total overs that the books misprice.
MLB Longshot Picks for Today
Pick for Thursday April 17, 2025.
Rangers SP Kumar Rocker UNDER 2.5 ER & UNDER 4.5 H & Record Win vs. Angels (+430, DraftKings)
Kumar Rocker (0-2, 7.94 ERA) is off to a bad start after entering the year in Texas’ starting rotation and this is a very important outing for him if he wants to hold onto that spot. Luckily, this matchup against the Angels could be just what the doctor ordered. Not only have the Angels scored four or less runs in each of their last five games (one total in their last two), but they just got dominated by Patrick Corbin (yes, that Patrick Corbin) last night. Rocker has been rocked by lefties specifically (.424/.444/.606) so far this year and has been throttled on the road (9 ER in 6.1 IP, 12.79 ERA), but Los Angeles has seven righties in tonight’s lineup and Rocker will toe the rubber in Texas. The 25-year-old hurler allowed just one earned run over 5.0 innings against the Rays back on April 6 and I’m confident he can run it back in this one. Opposing hitters have a BABIP of .381 against him and his 59.4% LOB rate suggests some positive regression is coming. With a four-seam fastball, sinker, slider, changeup and cutter, his pitch arsenal should allow him to find success against this weak righty-heavy lineup. I’ll wager $10 to win $43.
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MLB Betting Picks & DFS Value Results
| Date | Bet | Sport | Type | Odds | Risk | To Win | Win | Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4/15 | KCP 18+ PTS | NBA | Prop | +750 | 10 | 75 | -10 | |
| 4/15 | Edey 17+ REB | NBA | Prop | +725 | 10 | 72.50 | +72.50 | |
| 4/15 | Rutschman HR | MLB | Prop | +750 | 10 | 75 | -10 | |
| 4/15 | Buehler 7+ K | MLB | Prop | +400 | 25 | 100 | -25 | |
| 4/14 | Betts HR | MLB | Prop | +525 | 10 | 52.50 | +52.50 | |
| 4/14 | May u1.5 ER, u4.5 H, 7+ K | MLB | Prop | +500 | 20 | 120 | +120 | |
| 4/14 | Witt 4+ TB & Carrasco o3.5 ER | MLB | Prop | +600 | 10 | 60 | -10 | |
MLB Best Bets for Hidden Value
When it comes to MLB betting and DFS, the biggest wins often come from finding undervalued sleeper picks and longshot bets. While the public focuses on big-name stars, sharp bettors and DFS players know that deep value lies in overlooked player props, sleeper futures, and under-the-radar game bets.
At Sleeper Central, we specialize in identifying these high-upside, low-risk plays that can provide significant returns over a long season. Whether you’re betting on a home run prop at +800 odds, an unknown pitcher’s strikeout total, or a deep-cut MVP futures bet, here’s everything you need to know about MLB sleeper picks and longshots.
Types of MLB Longshot Bets You Can Make
1. Home Run Prop Bets
One of the best ways to capitalize on MLB longshots is through home run props. While elite power hitters have short odds, value can often be found on overlooked batters who have favorable matchups against weak pitchers or in hitter-friendly ballparks.
💡 Example: A No. 6 hitter in a high-scoring game might be +750 to hit a home run, offering significantly more value than a star at +250.
2. Strikeout Props on Sleeper Pitchers
The betting public tends to favor aces for strikeout props, but value can often be found in lesser-known pitchers with favorable matchups. Betting on an underrated strikeout pitcher can yield high rewards, especially against teams with high K-rates.
💡 Example: A young pitcher making his second start might have a strikeout prop of 4.5 at plus odds, even though his minor league numbers suggest he has elite swing-and-miss stuff.
3. RBI & Runs Scored Props
Bettors tend to focus on home run and total bases props, but RBI and runs scored props often provide longshot value. A middle-of-the-order hitter facing a struggling pitcher could have a strong RBI opportunity at +300 or higher.
💡 Example: A player hitting behind two high-OBP batters in a game with a high total might have +350 odds to record 2+ RBIs, offering significant value.
4. First-Inning Bets (YRFI/NRFI & First-Inning Runs)
First-inning betting (YRFI = Yes Run First Inning, NRFI = No Run First Inning) has become a popular market, and longshot opportunities exist in betting on specific players to record a first-inning RBI or home run.
💡 Example: Instead of just betting YRFI, you could find a +1000 bet on a leadoff hitter to hit a first-inning home run, maximizing potential profit.
5. Longshot Futures Bets (Season Awards & Team Totals)
The MLB season is long and unpredictable, making futures betting an excellent way to find longshot value. Key markets include:
- AL/NL MVP Sleeper Picks: Betting on a rising star or breakout player before the market adjusts.
- Cy Young Dark Horses: Looking for strikeout-heavy pitchers on playoff-caliber teams.
- Rookie of the Year Sleepers: Identifying prospects ready to make an immediate impact.
- Team Win Totals & Playoff Longshots: Finding underrated teams that could exceed expectations.
💡 Example: A team projected for 75 wins might be undervalued in the market, offering +5000 odds to make the playoffs—a worthwhile longshot bet.
MLB Sleeper Picks for DFS: How to Find Value
DFS is all about finding low-owned players who can outperform their salary. Here’s how to identify MLB DFS sleeper picks:
1. Platoon Advantage Hitters
Look for cheap hitters facing weak pitchers in favorable splits. A left-handed batter facing a below-average right-handed pitcher can be a great low-owned DFS play.
💡 Example: A lefty hitter with a high OPS vs. right-handed pitching but priced under $3,500 on DraftKings.
2. Low-Salary Stack Options
Stacking an undervalued lineup in a high-scoring game can be a profitable DFS strategy. Targeting the 5-9 hitters in a strong lineup can provide salary relief and upside.
💡 Example: Instead of stacking the top three hitters on a popular team, consider the bottom half of the order, which will be lower-owned and still have run-scoring potential.
3. Cheap Starting Pitchers with Strikeout Upside
DFS players tend to pay up for aces, but value pitchers can make or break a lineup. Look for high-strikeout arms against teams with high K-rates.
💡 Example: A pitcher priced under $7,000 on FanDuel who has recently increased his velocity or added a new pitch could be a sneaky upside play.
4. Bullpen Pitchers as Unexpected Starters
Sometimes relievers get spot starts, and the books don’t adjust. These pitchers can be cheap DFS plays with upside in the right matchup.
💡 Example: A bullpen arm making a spot start could rack up four to five strikeouts while priced near the minimum in DFS contests.
Final Thoughts: Maximizing MLB Longshot & Sleeper Value
The MLB season offers countless betting and DFS opportunities, and longshot bets and sleeper picks are the best way to find hidden value. Whether you’re wagering on an underrated home run prop, a deep-cut strikeout bet, or a sleeper MVP future, doing the research and identifying undervalued players can give you a massive edge.
Stay tuned to Sleeper Central for daily MLB longshot bets, DFS sleeper picks, and sharp betting insights that help you stay ahead of the market all season long! 🚀⚾
