NBA Sleeper Picks & Longshots
The NBA betting and DFS markets are dominated by star power, but the best value often lies with role players stepping up in the right situations. At Sleeper Central, we uncover undervalued player props, such as overlooked points, rebounds, and assists lines that offer hidden value. Our longshot betting picks include triple-double props, longshot first-basket bets, and high-value parlays that the public tends to ignore.
For DFS, we analyze usage rates, injury replacements, and recent shooting trends to highlight sleepers who can outperform their salary. In the futures market, we identify underrated Most Improved Player (MIP) candidates, sleeper MVP bets, and high-value team win totals.
NBA Longshot Bets for Today
Picks for Friday April 28, 2025.
Heat-Hawks SGP: Heat PF Haywood Highsmith Over 4.5 Points, Caris LeVert 13+ Alt Points & Onyeka Okongwu 1+ Made Threes (+400, DraftKings)
Using Sleeper Central’s Longshot Analyzer, I can see that this has a 20% implied probability, but I think each leg has a ton of value. I’ll wager $50 on this to hopefully win $200. Starting with Haywood Highsmith over 4.5 points, it’s clear that Erik Spoelstra likes how he matches up against the Hawks. The last four times Miami played Atlanta, he scored 11 points in 34 minutes, 14 points in 27 minutes, 14 points in 36 minutes and 13 points in 35 minutes (from most recent to least recent). Highsmith scored five points in 18 minutes against the Bulls in their first play-in win, but I think he will see more minutes in this matchup, most likely stealing time from Kel’el Ware.
Since joining the Hawks, Caris Levert played the Heat three times and scored 17, 17 and 15 points. Not only that, but he took exactly 12 shots in each of the contests and played 28, 28 and 32 minutes. I expect him to play right around 30 minutes once again and he should be relied upon to provide scoring, especially when Trae Young is resting.
Finally, Onyeka Okongwu has made a three in four of his last five games overall, in 12 of his last 15 and at least one in all three starts against the Heat this season.
Grizzlies C Zach Edey 17+ Rebounds vs. Mavericks (+425, DraftKings)
Zach Edey came through for me against the Warriors with 17 rebounds on 27 rebounding chances in 33 minutes. The worry going into that game was the matchup, but new head coach Tuomas Iisalo showed no concern playing the 7’4” big man against smaller, more agile opponents. Now against the Mavericks, they’re going to need Edey’s presence on the interior since Anthony Davis, Dereck Lively II, Daniel Gafford and PJ Washington are all suddenly healthy. Not only that, but in their first play-in win over the Kings, Jason Kidd deployed a ridiculously large starting five, opting to trot out Naji Marshall, Klay Thompson, Washington, Davis and Lively.
Since Iisalo took over as head coach at the start of April, Edey has been the best rebounder in the entire NBA and has seen an influx of minutes. He’s cleared this mark in three of his last five games overall and over the last six regular-season games, he averaged an MLB-best 15.7 rebounds and MLB-best 25.3 rebounding chances. I’ll bet $100 (full unit) to win $425.
PRIZEPICKS OFFER: Sign Up and Claim $50 Max Bonus Now! Click the banner below to claim!
NBA Betting Results
| Date | Bet | Sport | Type | Odds | Risk | To Win | Win | Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4/15 | KCP 18+ PTS | NBA | Prop | +750 | 10 | 75 | -10 | |
| 4/15 | Edey 17+ REB | NBA | Prop | +725 | 10 | 72.50 | +72.50 | |
| 4/15 | Rutschman HR | MLB | Prop | +750 | 10 | 75 | -10 | |
| 4/15 | Buehler 7+ K | MLB | Prop | +400 | 25 | 100 | -25 | |
| 4/14 | Betts HR | MLB | Prop | +525 | 10 | 52.50 | +52.50 | |
| 4/14 | May u1.5 ER, u4.5 H, 7+ K | MLB | Prop | +500 | 20 | 120 | +120 | |
| 4/14 | Witt 4+ TB & Carrasco o3.5 ER | MLB | Prop | +600 | 10 | 60 | -10 | |
NBA Best Bets for Hidden Value
In the fast-paced world of NBA betting and DFS, the true value often lies in identifying under-the-radar sleeper picks and longshot bets. While the spotlight shines on superstar players and top teams, sharp bettors know that hidden opportunities exist in overlooked player props, value-driven futures bets, and low-owned DFS plays. At Sleeper Central, we specialize in helping you uncover these high-upside plays that can offer significant returns throughout the NBA season.
Whether you’re targeting undervalued player props, overlooked MVP candidates, or deep-cut futures bets, here’s a guide to navigating NBA sleeper picks and longshots that can maximize your betting and DFS success.
Types of NBA Longshot Bets You Can Make
1. Player Prop Bets on Undervalued Stars
One of the best ways to profit from NBA longshots is by betting on underrated player props. While high-profile players often have low odds, value can be found in supporting players who are having breakout seasons or facing favorable matchups. These can range from points, rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks props, to more specific bets like double-doubles or triple-doubles.
💡 Example: A second or third-tier player might be +400 to record a double-double against a team with weak rebounding numbers, providing high potential returns for a relatively low risk.
2. Rookie of the Year (ROY) & Breakout Player Futures
The NBA Rookie of the Year race is often dominated by high-draft picks, but savvy bettors can find longshot ROY picks in undervalued rookies or young players showing early signs of potential. Similarly, future breakout candidates can be overlooked in the market.
💡 Example: A rookie drafted in the mid-first round might be a +1500 longshot to win ROY, despite showing flashes of brilliance in early-season games or through preseason performances.
3. MVP Dark Horses & Longshot Futures
While the MVP race typically revolves around the league’s elite players like Giannis, Luka, or Jokic, betting on a dark horse MVP candidate can offer massive returns, especially if a player is experiencing a career year and the market hasn’t fully adjusted. Futures on non-superstar MVP contenders or players with rising popularity can be a profitable long-term play.
💡 Example: A star who is carrying his team to the playoffs but doesn’t get as much national attention could offer +2000 MVP odds as a potential value pick.
4. Team Futures & Win Totals
In addition to individual player bets, team win totals and playoff predictions can provide great opportunities for NBA longshot bets. Underrated teams with strong offseason moves, young players, or new coaching strategies can often outperform expectations. Similarly, betting on a team to make the playoffs at long odds can be a profitable way to target overlooked teams.
💡 Example: A team like the Indiana Pacers or Sacramento Kings could be a +300 longshot to make the playoffs, given a young, improving roster and a favorable schedule.
5. Game-Specific Longshot Bets (Player vs. Player, Matchups, Totals)
For individual games, you can find longshot bets such as player vs. player props (e.g., who scores more points: player A or player B). In these bets, the odds can get long if you find a player who’s in a favorable matchup but not necessarily the favorite. Similarly, betting on a game’s total points over/under can be profitable if you predict a high-paced, high-scoring game.
💡 Example: A player with +800 odds to score the most points in a game could be a great bet if they’re facing a defense that struggles against their position.
NBA Sleeper Picks for DFS: How to Find Value
DFS success revolves around finding low-owned players who can outperform their salary, and NBA DFS sleeper picks are the key to maximizing your lineup’s potential. Here’s how to spot value in NBA DFS:
1. Low-Salary, High-Upside Players
Look for players with low salaries but a high ceiling—these are players who may not be starters but have the potential to explode in limited minutes. A player returning from injury or a late-season addition to the rotation can often offer huge value in DFS.
💡 Example: A player priced under $4,000 in a fast-paced matchup where they’re expected to play more minutes or are in a favorable position can often exceed their salary requirements and provide great ROI.
2. Value Players Against Weak Defenses
DFS sleepers often come from players facing weak defenses or teams that struggle to defend specific positions. If a player is in a good matchup but isn’t one of the top options on the team, they might still provide substantial fantasy points.
💡 Example: A shooting guard facing a team ranked near the bottom in defending the position could be a great sleeper pick at a low DFS salary. Look for matchup-dependent opportunities to capitalize.
3. Stacking Sleeper Players in High-Scoring Games
Stacking in DFS refers to selecting multiple players from the same game, typically from teams involved in high-scoring affairs. While many focus on the star players, stacking value players from the same game at lower ownership can give you an edge.
💡 Example: Pairing a mid-tier point guard with a low-owned shooting guard from a game expected to be high-scoring can help maximize your upside without breaking the bank.
4. Targeting Players in Favorable Pace-Up Matchups
Some teams play at a high pace, which leads to more possessions and, consequently, more fantasy opportunities. Targeting value players in these games, particularly those on the lower end of the DFS salary scale, can be a profitable strategy.
💡 Example: If a high-paced team like the Warriors or Suns faces a slower, more methodical team, players in this game could see an increase in fantasy output due to more opportunities for points, assists, and rebounds.
Final Thoughts: Maximizing NBA Longshot & Sleeper Value
The NBA season offers countless opportunities for value in longshot bets and sleeper picks, whether you’re betting on underrated player props, MVP futures, or DFS sleepers. By finding hidden value in the market—whether through breakout stars, young players with upside, or team win total overachievers—you can position yourself for success throughout the year.
Stay tuned to Sleeper Central for daily NBA sleeper picks, longshot bets, DFS recommendations, and expert analysis to help you uncover the best value plays and maximize your profits in the NBA market.
